Whether you regard this as a feature or a benefit, there is no question that this is true for many of the ingenuous and all of the disingenuous voters who have pulled the lever for Donald Trump:
— The New York Times (@nytimes) May 7, 2016
And, yes, we know that “ingenuous” and “disingenuous” are not precise antonyms. We meant to do that.
Regardless, the original Grand Old Party was the coalition of anti-immigrant, anti-alcohol, anti-slavery, pro-Union and, within a few years, anti-inflation and pro-business forces. In today’s terms, the first two groups follow Trump and social cons, respectively. The middle two groups are a dead letter — although we suspect the current election season will see some resurgence in fringe secessionists — and the last two groups most reflect the now vilified “establishment.” The question is, where do the all the pieces go?
In any case, we do predict this: the fragmentation of the GOP will have some very surprising effects on the Democratic Party, and will accelerate its own radical transformation. Why? Because once the first major party shatters, the first time it will have happened since before the Civil War, the example will have been made.