The Seven Horsemen of the Apocalypse

In dramatic lore (and great sportswriting), the Four Horsemen are Famine, Pestilence, Destruction, and Death. In St. John’s original construct, “War” stands in for Destruction. We prefer Destruction, because it captures the many types of war not imagined in Biblical times.

This morning we reread the first paragraph of Barbara Tuchman’s classic work on the worst century in Western history, A Distant Mirror: The Calamitous 14th Century, reproduced below. Tuchman proposed seven horsemen:

Plague, war, taxes, brigandage, bad government, insurrection, and schism. Broadly defined, we’ve got six of them running around the United States right now. “Brigandage,” which involves unemployed soldiers gallivanting around the countryside looting the undefended and disarmed locals, is common in the world but has not been a feature of American life since the years following our Civil War, no matter how you might characterize gun rights demonstrations of recent moment or the violent crime of the ’60s to the ’90s.

Plague? Check. Not literally “plague,” of course, which is a specific disease with a precise cause and an effective remedy, but plague in the sense that people who do not consort with medievalists or infectious disease experts use the word.

War? Nineteen years and running. We even confess to having supported those wars once upon a time, which is more than most people will admit. My guess is that nobody will care so much about terrorism now, so maybe we should generally withdraw and let all those people resume killing each other. But what about “Destruction”? We have made a policy decision (which we admit we supported, for a while) to destroy our material well-being to save lives from plague, and there are those who argue that we need a good deal more destruction still. Maybe that policy choice is yet the most cost effective — we won’t know for several years which choices were best — but all Americans, including especially the WFH overclass, ought to have the courage to call it by its name: Destruction.

Taxes? They are coming hard. Beautiful taxes like you’ve never seen before, in every American jurisdiction.

Bad government? No matter who you are, you have your favorite examples. As we have pointed out, everybody agrees that there have been massive failures of government in the United States. One’s opinion as to the cause of those failures is a Rorschach test for one’s pre-pandemic predilections.

Insurrection? We are closer than we have been for some time. Google “defies.” We have hair salon owners defying judges, mayors defying governors, and governors defying the president, all of which seems weirdly reasonable under the circumstances. Nobody is shooting yet, but we are one out-of-proportion bad judgment enforcement action away from another Ruby Ridge or Waco. Brace yourself for the “national conversation” about that.

Schism? The Papal Schism of the 14th century was so scary because each pope excommunicated the followers of the other. When one believes that this life is the misery one must endure for immortal paradise, excommunication is the equivalent of killing one of Tolkien’s Elves. The loss of immortality is a tragedy greater than mere mortal death, because the sacrifice is so great. Our schism today, which involves profound contempt verging on unqualified hatred for people who have a different vision of the meaning of the United States, destroys the purpose of our country, unique in the world, that moved our extraordinary ancestors to overcome challenges vastly more difficult than Covid-19. That is, or would have been to many Americans of old, a tragedy greater than mere mortal death.

The most profound sentence in Tuchman’s first paragraph may, unfortunately, be the last: “All but plague itself arose from conditions that existed prior to the Black Death and continued after the period of plague was over.”

Let us hope that history does not repeat itself.