We are back, at least temporarily. Extraordinary times demand an extraordinary commitment from all of us, and this is mine.
Herewith, a few COVID-19 speculations.
It would be most helpful if you commented with reference to the numbered speculation. If I add speculations to this post, as the bourbon sinks in, I will insert them without renumbering.
Finally, it should be said, that no doubt others have thought of all of these before me. We stand on the shoulders of giants.
1. A large number of Americans, exceeding millions, will become infected.
2. The death rate in the United States will be substantially lower than in China, because we have much lower rates of respiratory illnesses and our medical intervention will, most of the time, be more aggressive.
3. Still, Americans value life and are afraid of dying, so social norms will change rapidly, and perhaps permanently, because of this event.
4. Shaking hands at large gatherings — sales meetings, conventions, and the like — will go out of style. I imagine we will try lots of things, but I hope we settle on a more equal version of Japanese bowing. (It will be interesting to see whether any of our presidential candidates stop shaking hands to make the point.)
5. Workers who do not perform in-person functions (construction workers, massage therapists, real estate brokers, and so forth) will be encouraged to work remotely for a period. Many of them will find they like working at home, and in the end many employers will agree. This will rapidly accelerate the decentralization of work. If you own a huge office building, consider selling it.
6. If you build houses, shrink the closets — people won’t have to dress up for work as much — and build home offices.
7. While you’re at it, offer “prepper” options, like a generator and a cellar with two exits and a built-in gun safe. These will become much more popular in the next few years.
8. The Japanese have already sent their school children home for a month. This might turn out to be a reasonable thing for Americans to do, but it would be much harder for us. What happens to the kids who need school lunches? Who supervises the kids at home if the parent(s) [both] [all] have in-person job requirements? What happens to high school football practice in Texas? We may yet find out.
9. The world will move away from China as a sole source for anything. The beneficiaries will be countries that make it easy for foreign investment. Latin America ought to be the ideal beneficiary, except that (by and large) the countries of the region make things very difficult for foreign investment. The American heartland will be a long-term economic beneficiary to a degree that will surprise even Trump and his acolytes.
10. We will expose huge gaps in our own competencies, gaps that we have long been worried about, in our quiet moments, but are reluctant to admit to ourselves. For example, a big reason why Chinese companies make so many medicines on which we depend is that China produces a staggering number of students with chemistry degrees. If you need to hire 200 chemists in a hurry, China is the place to do it. That won’t change until Americans raise their children to study useful things again (#SUTA). This event may do it. I predict that the number of Americans studying biology and chemistry will increase significantly.
11. Nevertheless, there will be big opportunities in making basic stuff right here in the USA. “Made in America” will become a far more potent marketing device. If I were a young person who knew something about manufacturing — and there are such people — I would figure out what products are now *only* made in China and start making some of them here. There is a window opening.
12. The cost of basic consumer products will go up significantly as a result. While this will hurt the standard of living of the poor, the culture-shapers will be all for it. I, for one, will be shocked.
13. Businesses will learn new habits, including that they can get by with much less travel. Obviously, this will be very tough on airlines and lodging companies. Interestingly, reduced business travel (along with a lot more telecommuting) will result in a non-trivial reduction in incremental CO2. Further speculation: When a climate activist oversteps and suggests that this is a “silver lining,” he or she will be mocked as a “Thanos wannabe” on Twitter.
14. There is a non-zero chance that COVID-19 will be a blessing in disguise. We will in short order learn a great deal about how to respond to situations such as these, and changing social norms will be high on the list of important adaptations. If we learn these new habits and techniques now, instead of in a worse crisis that involves a much more lethal disease, we will save a lot of lives in the future.
15. If the first effective vaccine for COVID-19 in fact comes out of Israel, virtually all the people who believe in boycotting and divesting from Israel will take the vaccine anyway. None of them will change their minds.
16. Our response to COVID-19 may challenge contemporary American ideas about autonomy and liberty. We may need to reinstate old school quarantines and sanctions for people who break those quarantines. Somebody is going to sue after a public health official locks them up. I doubt very much that in the middle of a pandemic the federal courts are going to side against the public health authorities, especially given the long, albeit old, precedent. (I have long thought that the American individual rights era, which roughly coincided with the [temporary?] elimination of infectious disease as a leading cause of death, was in practice *enabled by* the control of infectious disease through sanitation, vaccines, and antibiotics. We shall soon see if I am right.)
17. Your Editor is a speaker (mentor) at the upcoming SXSW conference in Austin. We hope to see you there, but we will bow, rather than shake your hand.
What else?