Covid-19 Musings

By now everybody knows that the city of Austin effectively ordered the cancellation of SXSW on account of Covid-19 concerns. This was the right thing to do, even though, in our case at least, it is a ginormous bummer. SXSW is our favorite week of the Austin year, a long-planned staycation for me and Mrs. Blueberrytown, and this year we were honored to be selected as a “mentor” and were thereby graced with a platinum badge in compensation.

Imagine you just lost your free boondoggle to Hawaii or London or whatever you people enjoy. It is a lot like that for us.

Why was cancelling SXSW the right thing to do? Well, because people fly in from all over the world, including especially the virus-ridden Left Coast. There hasn’t been a known case in Austin yet, and the longer we defer that day the better. The more we learn about this bad boy before we catch it, the likelier we are to get through it without permanent damage, benefit from drug therapies, and avoid spreading it to people we love. Or, for that matter, people we could easily do without, but still want to avoid the guilt of infecting.

We have had a few thoughts since last Saturday, when — from our suite in the Palazzo in Las Vegas, shortly before the craps roll of a lifetime — we penned our original Covid-19 speculations, none of which have been proven wrong, but few of which have turned true. These are more like “musings,” in no particular order.

We’ve been practicing social distancing. Remembering not to shake hands takes practice, so don’t wait until your city is scouting for pauper graveyards to start doing it.

Notwithstanding our first preference for Japanese-style bowing, without, of course, the silly hierarchy — we are Americans, goddamn it! — in our nerdy circles the Vulcan greeting, accompanied by “live long and prosper,” seems to combine hep n’ cool irony with an actually relevant message, the sort of best wishes that are suddenly top of mind.

The good news in all of this is that it is killing off the “business hug,” which we deplore. And, no, we do not deplore business hugging because of a Pence-like obsession with #metoo issues, but because hugging for us is about sharing intimacy and connecting closely with a loved one. Business hugging is artificial at best, degrading if you think about it. If a few people have to die to kill off business hugging, the price will be worth it.

Relax. That was a joke. Goddamn.

The world’s economy is stopping like a car door slamming, do not believe otherwise. Why? Because nobody wants to kill their grandmother, or Willie Nelson. There are, however, a lot of questions to which we do not know the answers.

Are we heading in to a recession, with multiple quarters of economic decline, or does this thing look like a “V”? Our guess is that it all depends on March and April. If the global infected population doubles every few days, we’re in it for the long haul. If it takes weeks to double, then people are going to adjust, and cautiously get back on planes and such. If you are really courageous, start buying plane and cruise tickets for later in the year. They may be the best investment you make this month.

The CEOs we know are spending a ridiculous amount of time planning around this farookin’ disease. Right now, securing supply chains, protecting their employees, and avoiding exposure in the inevitable blood-sucking “you shoulda done” lawsuits are their biggest concerns. And, of course, nobody is spending any time thinking about innovation or growth, unless they run a biotech company pointed at viruses.

Companies that need current cash flow to service their debt could be in a lot of trouble. Leverage is not your friend in such times. Cash has gone from trash to beautiful, glorious, invigorating stuff you want to rub all over your body. Well, only if it is in crisp, uncirculated bundles. But you get our point.

With the ongoing collapse of the stock market, we are rapidly getting less unequal! Bernie problem solved! Add to that the mother of all oil price wars and the return of ZIRP and working people who do not lose their jobs will be, as our beloved father was wont to say, “fartin’ in silk.”

We were on a brewery and distillery crawl in Austin yesterday — something of a last hurrah, we suppose — and we learned that people do not appreciate frequent reporting on the status of this website. Not everybody reacts to stress the same way. So if you love watching infection counters, as we admit we do, keep it to yourself.

The news is that global cases are up roughly 4000 in the last 24 hours, from roughly 106,000 to roughly 110,000. That sounds bad, and for the individuals involved, it is. We find it comforting. An increase of around 4% in a day implies a doubling every 18 days. If that rate persists, Covid-19 seems manageable, suggesting that we would not hit a million cases around the globe until around the end of April. That buys a lot of time to prepare.

Sadly, the reported infection rate is probably going to accelerate. Our guess is that the reported rates of infection accelerate for the next few weeks as testing for the disease proliferates. That will look bad, but it might actually not reflect a rising transmission rate.

This is worth your time, especially if it leads you to adjust your helmet over inconveniences.

It feels like the right time to do our best to be a better citizen. Hunt down your local blood bank and give blood, because apparently there is a shortage looming.

Follow the example of Ted Cruz, if presented with the opportunity. “Opportunity” being, of course, a euphemism.

The press coverage is extremely tedious, with no end of argument about whether President Trump is, or is not, incompetent. How about hoping that he is, or that the remnant of his team is? So far, the evidence is mixed, but the United States has one of the lowest per capita rates of known infection in the traveling world. Let’s hope it stays that way, even if it is Trump’s fault.

Speaking of Trump, what controversial Covid-19-oriented executive order will he issue next? Given the soaring infection rates in the cradle of Western Civilization, we speculate Trump will soon ban travel from Europe. Do not go there unless you are prepared to stay for a while.

Is Time going to make the novel coronavirus its “Person” of the Year? Sitting here in early March, that seems like a lock.

Somebody needs to invent an inexpensive little wristband that vibrates if you raise your hand to scratch your face.

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